观点：五大因素影响咖啡价格变化的关键

龙听

来源：搜狐

来自《Futures Knowledge》｜由扑克投资家编译，转载请注明出处

　　原标题：The Top Factors that Move the Price of Coffee

　　Over the last few centuries, coffee has grown into one of the world’s most popular drinks. In addition, coffee has also grown to be an important cash crop. In fact, statics have it that over a hundred million people in the developing world depend on coffee as their main source of Income.

　　在过去的几个世纪里，咖啡已经成为世界上最受欢迎的饮料之一。此外，咖啡也成为一种重要的经济作物。事实上，在发展中国家，超过一亿人依赖咖啡作为他们的主要收入来源。

　　There are mainly two types of coffee namely Arabica and Robusta coffee. The both of them are traded worldwide on various exchanges, meaning that investors who are looking to profit from coffee prices have a number of options available to them. Robusta coffee is generally more expensive than Arabica coffee mainly because the biggest buyers – Kraft, Nestlé, Procter & Gamble, and Sara Lee – bought more of the former. Below are the top factors that move the price of coffee.

　　目前主要有两种类型的咖啡，即Arabica（阿拉比卡）和Robusta（罗布斯塔）咖啡。它们会在世界各地的各种交易所进行交易，这也意味着想在这其中套利的投资者可以有很多选择。罗布斯塔咖啡通常比阿拉比卡咖啡要贵许多，主要因为那些大买家例如卡夫，雀巢，宝洁，和Sara Lee在数量上会购买更多的罗布斯塔咖啡。以下是影响咖啡价格的主要因素。

　　Geopolitical factors

　　地缘政治因素

　　When you look at the top coffee-producing countries as a group, one of things that come to mind is that they could be politically instable. Statistics have it that the top five producers of coffee collectively account for about 65.6% of the world’s coffee production. The table below shows how much coffee each of the five countries produced in 2011.

　　当你把主要咖啡生产国看做一个群体时，有一点可以想到的是，它们可能在政治上都不稳定。统计数据表明，全球五大咖啡生产商产出的咖啡共同约占世界咖啡产量的65.6%。以下的表格分别显示了五个国家各自在2011年的咖啡产量。

　　Top five green coffee producers

　　五大咖啡生产国

　　

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2019-9-26 18:53

　　（表中从上到下，分别是巴西，越南，印度尼西亚，哥伦比亚，埃塞俄比亚）

　　Due to the political instability that these countries often experience, the market responds so swift to any issue from these countries. At its heart, the response of the market to such events is in response to the potential drop in supplies from these countries. At such periods, coffee prices go up. And as you might expect, issues in Brazil and Vietnam have the biggest effect on coffee prices, as they jointly account for close to 50% of the world’s production.

　　由于这些国家经常经历政治不稳定，以至于市场对这些国家的任何问题反应都如此迅速。首当其冲的便是当应对这些事件的时候，这些国家的咖啡供应能力都面临潜在降低的风险。在这样的时期，咖啡价格应声上涨。正如你所预料的，巴西和越南的问题对咖啡价格的影响最大，因为他们一起占到了全球咖啡产量的近50%。

　　Here is an instance. Prior to the 2014 FIFA World Cup (soccer) hosted by Brazil, there was a crisis. While much emphasis was not laid at that time with regard to coffee prices due to the fact that coffee prices had been up for most of the year, this event sure caused a bit of change in the coffee market. The fear was that the crisis could escalate and go all the way to threaten green coffee production in the country.

　　这里有一个实例。在巴西举办的2014届世界杯之前，出现了一场危机。当时大家的关注焦点都不在咖啡价格上面，然而事实上当年是咖啡价格上涨最多的一年，这一事件无疑引发了咖啡市场的一些变化。人们担心危机可能会升级最后威胁到该国的咖啡生产。

　　Climatic factors

　　气候因素

　　Coffee is highly sensitive to weather conditions. It just does not thrive in certain weather conditions. From what history has shown us, we can safely say rain has to fall just about the right time and sun has to shine at right time for coffee plants to grow properly. When these things do not happen as they should, farm output becomes low and hence, supplies become a problem. This situation usually sends prices high.

　　咖啡对气候条件非常敏感。它在某些天气条件下是不会生长的。从一些历史信息来看，我们甚至可以说为了咖啡的正常生长，无论雨水还是阳光，都得在正确的时候出现才行。如果不是这样，产量会很低，从而导致咖啡供应成为一个难题。这种情况最终引发价格上涨。

　　However, due to the global warming, these unfavorable weather conditions is what the world is now witnessing, and Brazil has had its fair share so far. For instance, coffee prices saw surged significantly in 2014, which was initiated by an unprecedented drought. Usually, for optimum growth, rainfalls in the early months of the year are vital to coffee producers in Brazil, as this is the key rainfall period leading into the growing season. Up until August, the drought, which had stopped, was still moving coffee prices, with analysts saying that the drought might have resulted in 20 to 30 percent crop loss, signaling that supplies would tighten up.

　　然而，由于全球变暖，整个世界都在一起见证这些不利气候条件的出现，到目前为止，巴西自然也不例外。举例来说，一场史无前例的干旱使得巴西咖啡的价格在2014年大幅飙升。正常来说，在巴西，年初的降水对于咖啡的生长显得至关重要，这段时间的雨季是咖啡生长的关键时期。直到8月，这场干旱才真正停止，但却仍然影响着咖啡的价格，分析师称，这场干旱可能导致百分之20~30的作物被毁，这也预示着咖啡供应将会紧缩。

　　After the drought, an unseasonal rainfall came around, which also sent prices higher. This unseasonal rain threatens 2015 coffee harvest, as it might bring about early flowering, during a usually dry month of August. Considering that the global warming is still very much around, investors have to monitor weather trends in coffee producing nations. This could be key to profiting from coffee prices in future.

　　干旱之后，非季节性的降雨来临，这也使得咖啡价格变得更高。这场非季节性的雨季将直接威胁着2015年咖啡的收成，因为它会使得花期提前，而这个时间，刚好会在八月的旱季。考虑到全球变暖的趋势依然很严峻，投资者不得不密切监测咖啡生产国的气候趋势。这可能将成为未来从咖啡价格的走势中获利的关键因素。

　　Speculator effect

　　投机者的影响

　　Due to the fact that coffee is a highly traded commodity, the market activities of traders have significant effect on coffee prices. A rise in coffee trading activities usually results in a surge in the price of coffee, signaling to the market that there is an increase in the demand for coffee.In addition, the trading activities for other related commodities like oil could also influence green coffee prices.

　　由于咖啡是一种很强的交易性商品，商人的市场活动对咖啡价格有显著的影响。咖啡交易活跃程度的上升通常都会导致咖啡价格的飙升，暗示市场对未来咖啡需求增长的预期。此外，其他相关大宗商品的交易活动比如石油也影响着咖啡的价格。

　　Enterprise trading

　　企业交易

　　It might also be of help to keep tabs on what big coffee companies are buying. Here is why. According to International Coffee Organization, the “Big Four” coffee roasting companies –Kraft, P&G, Sara Lee and Nestle – purchase approximately 50% of the coffee produced worldwide. This does not even include Starbuck, which is also a big player in the coffee industry. As stated earlier, Robusta coffee is more expensive than the Arabica coffee mainly because these companies brought more of the Robusta coffee. Therefore, if you are looking to trade futures of Arabica coffee, which is by the way the most popular, you want to look at what these companies are buying. If they decide to buy more of Arabica coffee, then you can expect Arabica coffee prices to go up.

　　重点关注那些被贴上咖啡大买家标签的公司也会显得很有帮助，让我告诉你为什么。据国际咖啡组织测算，所谓的“四大”咖啡烘焙公司分别是：卡夫，宝洁，Sara Lee和雀巢，它们购买咖啡数量的比重占整个世界咖啡产量的近50%，这还不包括另一个咖啡行业的大买家——星巴克。正如上文表述的那样，罗布斯塔咖啡通常比阿拉比卡咖啡要贵许多正是因为这些公司带会购买数量更多的罗布斯塔咖啡。因此，如果你正在观望准备交易阿拉比卡咖啡期货，作为一种最受欢迎的方式，你会想看看这些公司正在购买哪些，如果他们决定购买更多的阿拉比卡咖啡，那么你就可以预期阿拉比卡咖啡价格上涨。

　　Global demand outlook

　　全球需求展望

　　With more countries transitioning into what is called the developing world, the demand for coffee is on the rise. For instance, as much as Brazil is the world’s biggest producer of coffee, it does not even belong on the list of top ten coffee consumers, per capita. In addition, none of the top twenty coffee producing nations belongs on the list of the top ten consumers. This is mainly because they are less industrially.

　　随着越来越多的国家过渡到所谓的发展中国家，咖啡的需求正在逐日上升。举例来讲，巴西是世界上最大的咖啡生产国，然而，它在世界十大人均咖啡消费国的名单上却还排不上号。另外，在排名前10的咖啡消费国当中，排名前20的咖啡生产国也还一个都见不着影儿，这主要还是因为它们在工业领域依旧发展薄弱。

　　Therefore, as these countries become more developed, you can expect that the demand for coffee will be rise significantly. This is already taking place in Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia. On August 4, 2014, Wall Street Journal reported that coffee producers in these countries are selling more coffee in the local market. The longer this trend holds, the higher the potential that coffee prices would surge. Therefore, it might help to look at what the global coffee demand spectrum looks like when looking to predict coffee prices.

　　因此，随着这些国家的发展，你可以预期咖啡的需求将会显著上升。这样的变化在巴西、越南和哥伦比亚正在发生。2014年8月4日，据<华尔街日报>报道，这些国家的咖啡生产商正在当地市场上销售更多的咖啡。这种趋势持续越久，咖啡的价格就会越高。因此，持续关注全球咖啡需求量的变化对于预测未来咖啡价格也将变得很有帮助。